N.B. – This was published in Asian Correspondent (May 17, 6:30 p.m.) where I write a column (Philippine Fantasy).
Notwithstanding the overwhelming victory of President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo as a member of the House of Representatives (HOR), the May 10 elections in the Philippines still serves as a “political statement,” that of the Filipino voters’ rejection of her administration.
Consider the following facts:
- In the presidential race, administration candidate Gilberto Teodoro, Jr. remains at fourth place and has actually conceded the race.
- In the vice-presidential election, administration candidate Eduardo Manzano is at a distant fifth.
- The front-runners in the presidential and vice-presidential elections are opposition candidates.
- Nine out of the top 12 senators (as of this writing) are identified with the opposition.
- As regards the local elections, many of Macapagal-Arroyo’s members of the Cabinet did not win.
Of course, one may counter-argue that Macapagal-Arroyo’s getting about 84.23 percent of total votes in her hometown is proof that she is still wanted. In addition, it must be kept in mind that the administration party Lakas-Kampi is also projected to occupy 107 out of 265 seats in the HOR. There is therefore a good chance that Macapagal-Arroyo would become the House Speaker in the 15th Congress, even if the Liberal Party of apparent presidential election winner Benigno Aquino III promises to put up a good fight.
Then again, Macapagal-Arroyo’s victory is pyrrhic at best, considering that all she could muster at this point is the support of her townmates. In other words, she may be wanted by the people, but only in her hometown. At the national level, she is “wanted” in a different way.
She cannot expect to win in a vice-presidential or senatorial race which is national in scope. Why is this so? According to data from the Social Weather Stations (SWS), she has earned negative net satisfaction ratings since October 2004. Macapagal-Arroyo, in fact, is the only president after the people’s uprising in 1986 who got negative net satisfaction ratings. Prior to her, former President Fidel Ramos got the lowest rating at +1 in October 1995.
On the other hand, a survey by Pulse Asia in January 2010 shows that seven out of 10 Filipinos distrust Macapagal-Arroyo. “(T)he present overall distrust rating of President Arroyo – practically the same as the December 2009 figure (67 percent) – is her highest distrust rating since March 2001,” Pulse Asia says.
Macapagal-Arroyo is indeed one of the biggest issues in the May 10 elections. After the elections, it is expected that she will still be a major player in Philippine politics as she tries to use her power and influence to control Congress. Will she be successful in changing the Constitution to shift the form of government into a parliamentary one? Will she manage to install herself as Prime Minister, making her immune from suit?
Filipinos should not passively wait at this point, for they need to collectively act to oppose such actions.