N.B. – This was published in Asian Correspondent (May 24, 5:18 p.m.) where I write a column (Philippine Fantasy).

Analyzing the statistics of the 2007 and 2010 party-list election, there is reason for the Philippine government and other anti-communist elements to highlight the so-called dismal performance of erstwhile 2004 topnotcher Bayan Muna (BM) in the last party-list election.

One cannot deny the fact that BM’s 695,283 votes in the recent election (based on a partial, unofficial count of more than 90 percent of election returns) is much lower than its 979,189 votes in the 2007 election. Not surprisingly, its ranking fell from 2nd in 2007 to 7th in 2010.

The president and first nominee of Ako Bicol Political Party, the current party-list topnotcher which got about 1.4 million votes, sums it all up: “Filipino voters are tired of their militant style of `all talk, all shout, no work’ politics.”

How does one make sense of election-related statistics? First, it must be kept in mind that BM is just one of the eight party-list groups that are classified as progressive, or which political analysts refer to as the “nationalist-democratic” bloc in the party-list race. These groups currently belong to a coalition called the Makabayang Koalisyon ng Mamamayan (Makabayan; loose translation: Nationalist Coalition of the People).

Of the eight member-organizations of Makabayan, six participated in the 2010 party-list election. Two of them, ACT Teachers Partylist and Katribu, were first-time entrants. Comparing the 2007 and 2010 data of the four member-organizations, one notices that only BM had a decrease in votes while the rest had increases ranging from 11.3 percent to 70.1 percent. (See Table)

Given that there are 57 seats available in the 15th Congress, Gabriela Women’s Party (GWP), BM, AnakPawis (Toiling Masses), Kabataan (Youth) and ACT Teachers are assured of at least one seat each in the House of Representatives (HOR). It is unlikely at this point for Katribu Indigenous People’s Sectoral Party to land in the top 50. Whether or not GWP and BM will have one or two more seats will depend on the final tally of total votes cast for the party-list election.

What is important in the April 2009 Supreme Court ruling is that the 57 seats must be filled up to ensure representation of marginalized groups in the HOR. This means that the old system of requiring party-list groups to get at least two percent of total votes cast for the party-list election is not anymore applicable.

That the votes of Makabayan-affiliated party-list groups increased by 680,322 may be disappointing for its supporters, but this may also be seen as an achievement by itself. These groups have been the subject of black propaganda in the recent election. There were also various forms of harassment and intimidation during the campaign. The previous years also saw the political persecution of their officers, staff and supporters, resulting in the deaths, disappearances and other forms of human rights violations of many of them, particulaly those belonging to BM.

The so-called dismal performance of BM should therefore be analyzed in the context of the political persecution progressive organizations are currently going through.

The other angle worth looking at is the credibility of the recently held automated elections as allegations of fraud are now beginning to surface. Officials of Katribu, for example, reported that voters in one province were given pre-shaded ballots, preventing their supporters from voting for Katribu. Perhaps this could explain the latter’s votes of only more than 100,000.

Clearly, the powers-that-be can always claim that the progressive groups are losing the support of the people, but the statistics would show otherwise. Despite the political persecution, they remain a strong player in Philippine politics.