N.B. – This was published in Asian Correspondent (November 30, 7:00 p.m.) where I write a weekly column (Philippine Fantasy).

Is she running for Congress to run away from something?

It’s official: Philippine President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo files her certificate of candidacy tomorrow (December 1, 2009) as a representative of the second district of Pampanga in the House of Representatives (HOR).

She was quoted by the media as saying that she is not ready to “step down completely” from public service. “Gaya ng alam ninyo, hiniling din ako ng mga mamamayan ng aking tahanang distrito sa Pampanga na manatili sa buhay publiko (As you all know, constituents in my home district in Pampanga are asking me to stay in public office).”

Is there really a public clamor? A survey by IBON Foundation in October 2009 showed that even if 76 percent of Pampanga residents were aware of Macapagal-Arroyo’s plan to run for Congress, only 17 percent were in favor of her decision.

Are you aware of reports that PGMA plans to run in Congress in the 2010 elections after her term as President ends? (Pampanga results)	October 2009
Yes	76.47
No	23.53
No Answer	–
Total	100.00

Are you in favor for PGMA to stay in government this way? (Pampanga results)	October 2009
Yes	16.92
No	44.62
Don’t Know	38.46
No Answer	–
Total	100.00

Of course, the government could argue that the support for Macapagal-Arroyo comes not from surveys but from the local powers-that-be: Pampanga mayors made a courtesy call last November 28 in Malacañang to urge her to run. A day before that, a group of Pampanga residents were reportedly “allowed into the Palace compound to urge Mrs. Arroyo to run for Congress next year.”

Her son, Juan Miguel “Mikey” Arroyo is currently the representative of the second district of Pampanga and is eligible for a third term in the HOR. He stressed in a news report that “If my mother runs for Congress – there’s a clamor for her to run – siyempre (of course) I have to give way for her to run.”

In the coming days and months, Macapagal-Arroyo’s decision will be analyzed in the context of historical significance. There is no denying that she is the first Philippine President to run for a lower position after serving her term. She is likely to be compared to two Presidents of the United States — John Quincy Adams (who served in Congress in 1830 after his term as President) and Andrew Johnson (who served in the Senate in 1875).

Just like Macapagal-Arroyo who is the daughter of former Philippine President Diosdado Macapagal, John Quincy Adams (the sixth US President from 1825-1829) was the son of John Adams (the second US President).

For those who are against Macapagal-Arroyo, this information may come in handy: A cursory analysis of the Johnson presidency (1865-1869) shows that he is said to have been among the worst US presidents. He was also the first US President ever to be impeached. Coincidentally, Bill Clinton, the second impeached US President (1993-2001), was Macapagal-Arroyo’s classmate at Georgetown University.

Johnson’s apparent unpopularity with Americans resulted in his failure to get a seat in the Senate and the House of Representatives in 1868 and 1872, respectively. He was elected senator in 1874 and served from March 4, 1875. He died a few months later.

The similarities with Adams and Johnson, however, end there. Notwithstanding their weaknesses as US Presidents, their decision to seek congressional seats after the expiration of their term as President had nothing to do with trying to amend or revise the Constitution to change the system of government so that they could perpetuate themselves in power.

Macapagal-Arroyo and her supporters can easily dismiss as speculation the argument that she is now embarking on a complicated process of a “legal” power-grab — i.e., being elected in the HOR; becoming the House Speaker; ensuring Charter change to change the form of government from presidential to parliamentary; and then installing herself as the country’s Prime Minister.

There is sufficient basis to predict about a Charter change this early because Macapagal-Arroyo is apparently motivated not just by a simple hunger for power. Even if she has survived four impeachment complaints (the last one dismissed on November 26, 2008), Macapagal-Arroyo needs to protect herself when she steps down from the presidency from various cases likely to be filed against her like abuse of power, plunder and human rights violations during her term as President from 2001 to 2010.

Despite the continued denial of the Macapagal-Arroyo administration, there is empirical evidence of the Filipino people’s loss of confidence in the powers-that-be, particularly the President herself. The October 2009 nationwide survey of Pulse Asia, for example, showed that “Filipinos critical of presidential performance and who distrust President Arroyo continue to greatly outnumber those with a positive opinion about the President’s work and her trustworthiness.”

Data from the October 2009 Pulse Asia survey show that the Macapagal-Arroyo’s prospects of winning any national elective position (e.g., Vice President or Senator) are dim because five out of 10 Filipinos do not trust her and disapprove of her performance. The survey was done before the November 23 Ampatuan massacre of 57 civilians (including 30 journalists and media workers). It is likely that her performance and trust ratings will not significantly improve in the coming months as the public outcry for justice remains unheeded.

That Macapagal-Arroyo visited Pampanga about 50 times this year shows that her run for a seat in the HOR has been a long-standing plan disclosed only now by the administration. Indeed, she is running for Congress to ensure that she maintains power and influence.

Whether or not she ends up in Congress will be up to the vigilance and militancy of the people from now until the May 2010 elections. Given that stranger things have happened in Philippine elections through the years, whether or not she ends up in jail is a development also worth watching in the months to come.